boyda's win: the narrative

Without a doubt, Nancy Boyda's victory over long time incumbent Jim Ryun was one of the major upsets of this election cycle. Within a few months the seat went from "Safe Republican" to a Democrat pickup. With much national media attention already focused on Kansas's Democratic resurgence, the question remains: what will become the story of Boyda's victory? Several explanations are possible:

1) Anti-Bush fervor struck everywhere. This is the explanation throughly covered by Diane Silver in her excellent recent post. The basic theory is that Bush was an albatross around the neck of every Republican incumbent in the country, and his toxic unpopularity handed the seat to Boyda. There is no doubt that anti-Republican and anti-Bush sentiment were a part of Boyda's victory. But it's difficult to determine how much Bush factored in. Like most House races, there wasn't an exit poll to guage the effect of Presidential disapproval on voters. The last 50 state SurveyUSA poll on Bush's popularity was taken back in October. It showed Bush's approval at 41% approval statewide. His strongest disapproval number, 63% came from an ill-defined "Eastern" portion of the state, which undoubtedly included most of the Second district. Bottom line: there is definitely evidence to suggest Bush had a hand in sinking Ryun.

2) Gerrymandering bit the Republicans in the ass. Silver touches on this explanation as well. The story goes something like this: by cutting Lawrence in half during the 2002 redistricting, the Republicans dumped a bunch of Democratic votes into the Second district. Lawrence, the state's liberal stronghold, is split between the Second and Third congressional districts. The split runs right down Iowa street, placing the K.U. campus and most of the student ghetto in the Third district, and the western half of the city in the Second (the western half has a lower student population).

The best way to test this theory is to look at the numbers. Based on the Lawrence Journal-World's very cool interactive map, Boyda won huge in Lawrence. Generally, the closer one gets to Iowa street, the bigger the margin. She also seems to have carried every single precinct in Douglas county (where Lawrence resides). According to the 2004 results in Douglas county (link is in Microsoft excel format), Boyda recieved 10,063 votes to Ryun's 10,333. This year, according the Secretary of State's unofficial results, she recieved 9,379 votes to Ryun's 5,850. At least in Douglas county, the results are pretty unmistakable: Democrats were energized and Republicans stayed home. The problem for Ryun wasn't his district, it was Republican turnout. Boyda's lopsided victory in populous Shawnee county (which Ryun carried handily in 2004) appears to have also been decisive.

3) Ryun ran a horrible campaign / Boyda ran a great campaign. Almost all of the evidence for either theory has been anecdotal. There was some grumbling among Kansas Republicans that Ryun had done a poor job with constituent service, and that he failed to take Boyda seriously until it was too late. The latter assertion does have some merit: according to the odious (and hilariously ineffective) blog Fire Kansas Democrats, Ryun's first campaign ad didn't air until late September. Had team Ryun been more on the ball, they could have aggressively defined Boyda and buried her early on.
As for the Boyda campaign: After Ryun's decisive victory in 2004, there was some doubt over her appeal as a candidate and (as someone who has never held elected office) her political instincts. But there's no doubt Nancy Boyda and her husband/campaign manager Steve Boyda made some great moves this time around. Using their extremely limited resources to commission internal polls, and then releasing those polls to the public was clearly beneficial. It generated media attention, helped drive Democratic turnout and, at the crucial late stages of the campaign, convinced the DCCC to dump money into the race. Boyda's unsuccessful 2004 run also helped pave the way for victory--she started with much higher name I.D. than a virtual unknown. Finally, team Boyda utilized the "change" message which seems to have worked wonders for Democrats across the country.

4) Boyda had help at the top of the ticket. The lopsided victories of Governor Kathleen Sebelius and new Attorney General Paul Morrison may have had coattails. Conventional wisdom says a voter who checks the box for a Democrat once is probably more likely to do it twice. Undoubtedly, popular state-level Democrats make it harder to caricature the party. Ryun's claims that all Democrats want to raise your taxes were contradicted by actual experience with Democrats who didn't. On this point, the numbers are a wash. Sebelius and Morrison both ran well ahead of Boyda everywhere, suggesting that some Sebelius supporters still voted for Ryun. But a popular incumbent Governor certainly didn't hurt.

These narratives not mutually exclusive, and it's likely all contributed to Boyda's upset. It's likely the national media will pick up on the first explanation, because it's the easiest, it ties into national issues, and allows the pundits to save face for writing off the race far too early. Judging by the media attention generated by the state's moderate Republican defections, there's little doubt that a flood of "What's (not) The Matter With Kansas" articles are on the horizon.