turnout key in ks-02

Congresswoman-elect Nancy Boyda did better than everybody expected on Tuesday. So how did she do it? To help find out, I have complied a county-by-county list of vote totals for 2004 and 2006 (available in Excel format here)

So what does all this mean?

First, Boyda's turnout was unusually strong. Midterm elections always have lower turnout than Presidential years, and far fewer total votes were cast this year in the Second district than in '04. But Boyda's 2006 numbers are almost all (with the exception of Riley county) within a few hundred votes of her 2004 totals. In Jackson, Jefferson, Nemaha, Osage and Pottawatomie counties she even slightly exceeds her 2004 totals. In contrast, Ryun didn't beat his 2004 totals in a single county.

Second, Ryun had much lower turnout than in 2004, and it was devestating. In almost every county he recieved at least 1,000 fewer votes than '04. The problem was the worst in the most populous areas. In Shawnee county (which includes Topeka) alone he recieved over 13,000 less votes than 2004. Douglas, Riley and Leavenworth counties delivered around 15,000 less Ryun votes. This meant that even in counties Ryun carried, his margin over Boyda was much thinner. In Leavenworth this turnaround was particularly dramatic--he recieved about 5,000 more votes than Boyda in '04, but only around 125 more votes than Boyda in '06. His core support simply evaporated.

So where did Boyda's votes come from? Were Boyda's totals the result of 2004 Ryun voters switching sides, or did Boyda '04 voters show up while Ryun '04 voters stayed home?
The most likely explanation is that Boyda's 2004 supporters were energized and Ryun's weren't. While we won't know for sure until all the election results are certified, it looks like Democratic turnout was strong nationwide. Pre-election polling data indicated a large enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats. From my own experiences, I think Charlie Cook nailed this year's mood among Democrats when said they were "spitting nails and can't wait to vote." The lack of a viable Republican challenge to Sebelius probably also helped to depress Republican turnout. It's hard to motivate voters to get to the polls for someone who has no chance of winning.

From these numbers, it's clear that talk of a realignment in Kansas politics is premature. If enough Republican voters had turned out on Tuesday--if Ryun had been able to get within a few hundred votes of his 2004 totals--Boyda would have lost big. 2006 was an extraordinary election year, and it's unlikely that she will face the same combination of energized Democrats and dispirited Republicans in the near future. If Boyda wants to be more than a one-term representative, it's imperative that she starts to pick off Republican moderates. The powers of incumbency can do wonders for a Democrat in a Republican-leaning district (just look at Dennis Moore's ever-increasing vote percentages in Johnson County) and she better start using them quickly. The Republicans will be back in 2008, and they might be the ones spitting nails.