turnout key in ks-02

Congresswoman-elect Nancy Boyda did better than everybody expected on Tuesday. So how did she do it? To help find out, I have complied a county-by-county list of vote totals for 2004 and 2006 (available in Excel format here)

So what does all this mean?

First, Boyda's turnout was unusually strong. Midterm elections always have lower turnout than Presidential years, and far fewer total votes were cast this year in the Second district than in '04. But Boyda's 2006 numbers are almost all (with the exception of Riley county) within a few hundred votes of her 2004 totals. In Jackson, Jefferson, Nemaha, Osage and Pottawatomie counties she even slightly exceeds her 2004 totals. In contrast, Ryun didn't beat his 2004 totals in a single county.

Second, Ryun had much lower turnout than in 2004, and it was devestating. In almost every county he recieved at least 1,000 fewer votes than '04. The problem was the worst in the most populous areas. In Shawnee county (which includes Topeka) alone he recieved over 13,000 less votes than 2004. Douglas, Riley and Leavenworth counties delivered around 15,000 less Ryun votes. This meant that even in counties Ryun carried, his margin over Boyda was much thinner. In Leavenworth this turnaround was particularly dramatic--he recieved about 5,000 more votes than Boyda in '04, but only around 125 more votes than Boyda in '06. His core support simply evaporated.

So where did Boyda's votes come from? Were Boyda's totals the result of 2004 Ryun voters switching sides, or did Boyda '04 voters show up while Ryun '04 voters stayed home?
The most likely explanation is that Boyda's 2004 supporters were energized and Ryun's weren't. While we won't know for sure until all the election results are certified, it looks like Democratic turnout was strong nationwide. Pre-election polling data indicated a large enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats. From my own experiences, I think Charlie Cook nailed this year's mood among Democrats when said they were "spitting nails and can't wait to vote." The lack of a viable Republican challenge to Sebelius probably also helped to depress Republican turnout. It's hard to motivate voters to get to the polls for someone who has no chance of winning.

From these numbers, it's clear that talk of a realignment in Kansas politics is premature. If enough Republican voters had turned out on Tuesday--if Ryun had been able to get within a few hundred votes of his 2004 totals--Boyda would have lost big. 2006 was an extraordinary election year, and it's unlikely that she will face the same combination of energized Democrats and dispirited Republicans in the near future. If Boyda wants to be more than a one-term representative, it's imperative that she starts to pick off Republican moderates. The powers of incumbency can do wonders for a Democrat in a Republican-leaning district (just look at Dennis Moore's ever-increasing vote percentages in Johnson County) and she better start using them quickly. The Republicans will be back in 2008, and they might be the ones spitting nails.

boyda's win: the narrative

Without a doubt, Nancy Boyda's victory over long time incumbent Jim Ryun was one of the major upsets of this election cycle. Within a few months the seat went from "Safe Republican" to a Democrat pickup. With much national media attention already focused on Kansas's Democratic resurgence, the question remains: what will become the story of Boyda's victory? Several explanations are possible:

1) Anti-Bush fervor struck everywhere. This is the explanation throughly covered by Diane Silver in her excellent recent post. The basic theory is that Bush was an albatross around the neck of every Republican incumbent in the country, and his toxic unpopularity handed the seat to Boyda. There is no doubt that anti-Republican and anti-Bush sentiment were a part of Boyda's victory. But it's difficult to determine how much Bush factored in. Like most House races, there wasn't an exit poll to guage the effect of Presidential disapproval on voters. The last 50 state SurveyUSA poll on Bush's popularity was taken back in October. It showed Bush's approval at 41% approval statewide. His strongest disapproval number, 63% came from an ill-defined "Eastern" portion of the state, which undoubtedly included most of the Second district. Bottom line: there is definitely evidence to suggest Bush had a hand in sinking Ryun.

2) Gerrymandering bit the Republicans in the ass. Silver touches on this explanation as well. The story goes something like this: by cutting Lawrence in half during the 2002 redistricting, the Republicans dumped a bunch of Democratic votes into the Second district. Lawrence, the state's liberal stronghold, is split between the Second and Third congressional districts. The split runs right down Iowa street, placing the K.U. campus and most of the student ghetto in the Third district, and the western half of the city in the Second (the western half has a lower student population).

The best way to test this theory is to look at the numbers. Based on the Lawrence Journal-World's very cool interactive map, Boyda won huge in Lawrence. Generally, the closer one gets to Iowa street, the bigger the margin. She also seems to have carried every single precinct in Douglas county (where Lawrence resides). According to the 2004 results in Douglas county (link is in Microsoft excel format), Boyda recieved 10,063 votes to Ryun's 10,333. This year, according the Secretary of State's unofficial results, she recieved 9,379 votes to Ryun's 5,850. At least in Douglas county, the results are pretty unmistakable: Democrats were energized and Republicans stayed home. The problem for Ryun wasn't his district, it was Republican turnout. Boyda's lopsided victory in populous Shawnee county (which Ryun carried handily in 2004) appears to have also been decisive.

3) Ryun ran a horrible campaign / Boyda ran a great campaign. Almost all of the evidence for either theory has been anecdotal. There was some grumbling among Kansas Republicans that Ryun had done a poor job with constituent service, and that he failed to take Boyda seriously until it was too late. The latter assertion does have some merit: according to the odious (and hilariously ineffective) blog Fire Kansas Democrats, Ryun's first campaign ad didn't air until late September. Had team Ryun been more on the ball, they could have aggressively defined Boyda and buried her early on.
As for the Boyda campaign: After Ryun's decisive victory in 2004, there was some doubt over her appeal as a candidate and (as someone who has never held elected office) her political instincts. But there's no doubt Nancy Boyda and her husband/campaign manager Steve Boyda made some great moves this time around. Using their extremely limited resources to commission internal polls, and then releasing those polls to the public was clearly beneficial. It generated media attention, helped drive Democratic turnout and, at the crucial late stages of the campaign, convinced the DCCC to dump money into the race. Boyda's unsuccessful 2004 run also helped pave the way for victory--she started with much higher name I.D. than a virtual unknown. Finally, team Boyda utilized the "change" message which seems to have worked wonders for Democrats across the country.

4) Boyda had help at the top of the ticket. The lopsided victories of Governor Kathleen Sebelius and new Attorney General Paul Morrison may have had coattails. Conventional wisdom says a voter who checks the box for a Democrat once is probably more likely to do it twice. Undoubtedly, popular state-level Democrats make it harder to caricature the party. Ryun's claims that all Democrats want to raise your taxes were contradicted by actual experience with Democrats who didn't. On this point, the numbers are a wash. Sebelius and Morrison both ran well ahead of Boyda everywhere, suggesting that some Sebelius supporters still voted for Ryun. But a popular incumbent Governor certainly didn't hurt.

These narratives not mutually exclusive, and it's likely all contributed to Boyda's upset. It's likely the national media will pick up on the first explanation, because it's the easiest, it ties into national issues, and allows the pundits to save face for writing off the race far too early. Judging by the media attention generated by the state's moderate Republican defections, there's little doubt that a flood of "What's (not) The Matter With Kansas" articles are on the horizon.

kansas turns purple

After a heated campaign season, Kansas has split both its statewide offices and U.S. Congressional seats right down the middle. Nancy Boyda unseated Jim Ryun in the 2nd district, and Dennis Moore crushed the wormy Chuck Ahner. Sebelius, as widely expected, held onto the governor's office, and Paul Morrison annihilated Phill Kline.

With the dust still settling, a few things are apparent:

1) Negative campaigning failed. Kline's entire campaign was dedicated to slinging mud and distorting the record of Paul Morrison. The more he did it, the more he slipped in the polls. Similarly, Jim Ryun's attempts to paint Boyda as a scary tax-raisin' librul didn't hold water. Voters aren't quite as stupid as people think.

2) The religious right has been slapped down. In such a heavily Republican state, there was a time the Operation Rescue crowd was a force to be reckoned with. That no longer appears to be the case, as moderate Republicans have shown they'll support moderate Democrats over right-wing Republicans. Kline's constant pandering to extreme pro-lifers alienated enough middle-of-the-road voters to cost him his seat. Morrison's huge margin once again shows that the religious right is a (very vocal) minority.

3) Kansas has once again shown that it isn't crazy. After years of being the butt of every political joke, Kansans have shown that we aren't idiots who support Republicans no matter what. We aren't religious fanatics who place abortion and gay marriage above all other pressing issues. We aren't luddites who want to pretend evolution didn't happen. We're sensible, moderate folks who want effective government instead of divise partisanship.

Congratulations to Congresswoman Boyda and Attorney General Morrison. May they do us proud.

kline goes down in flames

According the Lawrence Journal World, with over half of precincts reporting, Morrison is up 59% to 41%. It's hard to see Kline coming back from this one.

UPDATE: It's over! The Kansas City Star calls the race for Paul Morrison, 58% to Kline's measely 41%. Let us bask in the blinding dome of our new Attorney General

UPDATE II: The Lawrence Journal-World calls the race for Morrison.

boyda leading in early results!

According the latest results, with 57% reporting, the race currently stands at:

Boyda (D): 54%, 72,573 votes
Ryun (R): 45%, 62,425 votes

It ain't over yet, but if I was Ryun I'd be sweating bullets...

UPDATE (10:35pm): Boyda's lead is holding with 72% of precincts in according to LJ-World. Ryun needs to make up almost 12,000 votes in order to win.